Yesterday I spoke to three Academy members (two directors, one actor) about which Oscar nominees they were thinking of voting for. None of them had submitted their ballot. Two said they'd probably be waiting until the very last minute. They know what they admire or were most moved by, but they also know who's probably going to win.
They also want to spread the love around so they're involved in some emotional horse-trading. ("I know Bong Joon-ho probably can't win Best Picture or Best Director but he has to win Original Screenplay," etc.)